Chinese Academic Thinking on International and Regional Order

Chinese Academic Thinking on International and Regional Order

Over the past decade, both foreign and Chinese political analysts have concluded that china is on the verge of developing a coherent and consistent grand strategy. The conclusion is despite the fact that the majority of these political and diplomatic experts disagree on the content and nature of the Chinese view on regional and international order. Indeed, China’s strategy for regional order marries with its plan for expansion of dominance to the international stage. However, it is important to note that currently, China considers itself a regional power with a low interest in global affairs (Shambaugh 2015).

China takes economic development as the only way to tackle challenges that the country is facing in the region and will face in its future plan to become a key player on the international stage. Therefore, its grand plan ought to serve a central role in development. In light of this, it is undeniable that the fundamental objective of china is to shape and secure a conducive regional environment (politically, socially, and economically) to allow the country to concentrate on its expansion of influence and the development plan.

Concepts

There are four concepts that underpin China’s view on regional and international order. The root of the first concept is traceable to Sun Yat-sen, a former president and the founding father of the modern China. He was convinced that China belongs to a league of great powers as confirmed by its massive size, prosperity as well as the recent growth of population and wealth. However, for the past two centuries, China has failed to restore its former glory by rebalancing regional and international order (Fan 2011). It is because of this reason that the current leaders of the communist party are determined to make the country a great power again.

Second, it dawned on Deng Xiaoping that requires a peaceful and stable regional and international environment for its expansion and modernization program to be successful. To his surprise, he learned during his 1978 tour of Asian states that not many of the South Eastern Asian states trusted his country’s political system. In fact, the neighbouring countries were careful of China’s exportation of revolution. As a result, multiple small Asian countries are increasingly growing suspicious of China’s intentions for the region. Following Deng’s tour, it was clear to most of the China’s policy makers that the 1970s security conundrum was due to an interaction between the outside world and China’s behaviour. A realization such as this has greatly influenced China’s strategic behaviour and thinking from then on.

Thirdly, according to Deng’s doctrine of dangtou buyao,  the leaders should exercise self-restraint by refraining from actively seeking influence and dominance in both regional and global affairs because of the heavy responsibilities that accompany the move. Lastly, during the leadership of Jiang Zemin, Asia fell into a serious financial crisis in 1997. The events that took place after this economic downturn became an eye-opener to Chinese policy makers and analysts that the country’s security and economic welfare was highly dependent on the interaction with the global community. Consequently, China prioritized to participate in both regional and international affairs to restore the order. In essence,   China gained immensely from taking up roles in global affairs but also, the country had t adopt a certain behaviour characteristic of great and responsible powers such as the US, French, and the UK.

Relationship with Regional and International Powers and Implications

China is building on its self-image as a dominant power in the region. Accordingly, the country maintains a functional relationship with all the global powers such as Russia, Germany, United States, and France. The main aim is to rival the US as a superpower and to rebalance the regional order (Odgaard 2013). However, it is true that America is a sole superpower and the main provider of market, capital, and technology to China, thus making china’s thinking unrealizable in the foreseeable future. Besides, the great power diplomacy of China is America-centric. Behind the curtains, Chinese strategists and policy-makers strive to maintain a workable interrelationship with the EU and the US. The policy is active despite persistent domestic opposition against China’s soft side towards the US as exhibited during incidences like Belgrade bombing of the Chinese embassy.

Notably, Sino-US relationship has been marred with uncertainties and security dilemma. Recognizing this, China is actively forging stronger ties and relationships with the neighbouring states to neutralize US’s advances. China has 15 neighbouring nations, hence making it hard for it to continue a hard-line stance and suppression of smaller states. It is not in China’s interest to pursue an aggressive strategy in its push for the leadership of regional order even is the country becomes a superpower because of the possibility of an alliance formation by the neighbouring countries (such as South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines) with distant powers (such as the United States and EU) to tame and counterbalance China’s advances.

Second, an adoption of a moderate strategy by China may result in reluctance by regional states to adopt a hard containment policy. The resultant opportunity accords China with a secure environment in the region for it to pursue its economic goals. During the early 2010s, China began to forge bilateral trade agreements with countries like India, Russia, and Japan in a strenuous effort to reassert its position and to improve the relationship with the regional countries.

Thirdly, China embraces multilateralism as a strategy towards a regional and international order. Evidently, the country takes an active stance in global institutions and in regional initiatives. However, such a lengthy process is gradual and may take decades for China to realize its goals. The communist party and policy makers in China understand the clear distinction that exists between security ties and regional economic cooperation. As a result, China’s activity is more pronounced in regional multilateral economic institutions than in matters regarding security (Shambaugh 2015). While china plays a leading role in the implementation of economic cooperation and integration initiatives in the Asian region, it refrains from committing itself from institutionalization and codification of regional security.

Regarding the international order, China shoulders particular international responsibilities as assigned by international authorities such as the UN. Of keen to note is that China opposes any move that signals interference from the international community in the domestic affairs. For instance, any propositions of democracy or independence of Chinese territories such as Hong Kong or Taiwan are often met with strong objections from the communist regime.

China’s Regional Strategy

China focuses on Asia as a region in its grand strategy. The national interest of China is deeply enshrined in Asia as a block, thus a need to pursue an integrated approach to politics, economy and security. In the past, China was encircled by great powers due to its isolation. Therefore, Recalibrating regional order calls for China to maintain a workable relationship with Russia, India, and Japan on security matters to avoid recurrence of encirclement. In China’s view, regional order shields it from pressure exerted by the United States and other Western nations. In addition, china seeks to maintain a cordial relationship with other Asian states to prevent the formation of a hard containment coalition led by the United States. The encirclement of China by such an external force will dwindle its dominance and economic performance, denying it a chance to push for economic gains regionally and internationally.

China is aware of its newfound status as an economic power in the region. However, China’s sphere of influence will continue to grow as long as the economy is stable and growing. China’s current challenge is to convert the economic growth from being a threat to the regional order to an opportunity. In this way, the regional countries will not unite in thwarting the positive developments in China. Economists argue that FDI that formerly went to South Korea, Japan, India, and the Philippines are now redirected to China due to positive economic prospects. Additionally, China is quickly gaining a competitive advantage over regional states in sectors such as trade, tourism, and technology. Therefore, China understands its mandate to alleviate Asian countries’ generic fear to ensure the stability of the regional and international order (Odgaard 2013).

China is taking a neo-liberalism stance to encourage economic interdependence in the region to minimize chances of conflict hence maintain regional order. The country is asserting itself as a locomotive for regional growth by providing a ready market for regional products while exporting technology and investment. The tactic is replicated on the international stage, where China is replacing the United States in South America, Africa, and Australia.  Political analysts project that China’s political influence in global affairs will be limited for more than a decade into the future. Therefore, the country will be more comfortable playing this role at a regional stage as a rehearsal for a major role (Schweller et al. 2011). Failure to retain the leadership mantle will not only destabilize the regional order but also, it will limit the chances of China becoming an international political power. Chinese policy makers are convinced that the country deserves respect from the neighbouring countries, especially regarding China’s opinions on regional order.

China elevates its relationship with Asian states through strategic partnerships like ACFTA (Asia-China Free Trade Area). While the relationship between China and Russia was security oriented, the intention to recalibrate the regional and intentional order has pushed China to consider closer economic integration with a powerful Northern neighbour and other countries in Central Asia through SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). Contrastingly, China is moving from an economic cooperation with South Korea to strengthening the political ties between the two countries too. Many Western analysts argue that this tactical move is intended to weaken America’s political and security influence in the country, thus resulting in shifts and re-establishment of regional order.

International Strategy

As long as the United States does not threaten the core interests of China, the communist party demonstrates a willingness to coexist with a hegemonic power in the regional and international order. Still, China sends clear signals on her intolerance to hegemonic behaviour (Foot 2014). China sees no need to counter America for a basic reason that the Western state is an international power, but the Chinese government intends to collaborate with other countries like Russia to neutralize America’s hegemonic activity, especially when the United States fails to act in accordance with the international norms and order. Logically, China is interested in integrating into the international and regional order if America and the West exercise their responsibility as global powers. In this way, China becomes an insider rather than an uncomfortable outsider.

Rising within the regional and international order presents China with an opportunity to reshape and influence the future order. Besides, China gets a chance to grow peacefully as a communist state rather than as a country transformed by the order into a democratic state (Buzan 2011). Chinese foreign policy experts and leaders carefully survey other rising powers in history (such as Japan, Israel, and India) to gather important lessons and avoid making similar mistakes made by such countries. To some extent, China realizes that America’s position in the Pacific region replaced easily, but communist party leaders reiterate that their priority is not to push the US out of South Korea and Japan.

Chinese boasts one of the most open economies in Asia. Therefore, as the country’s economic prospects widen, integration with the region in pursuit of new order is imminent. China, therefore, is presented with two alternatives. First, the communist country can follow Japan’s lead to invest in the region while keeping maintaining a closed domestic market. Alternatively, China can encourage interdependence by opening the domestic market like the United States and EU. So far, China is leaning towards the adoption of the US’s option to ensure that the Asian states can embrace China’s economic growth and expansion as an opportunity rather than a threat. China’s confidence is growing, especially in its ability to reshape the regional political and economic order (Foot 2014). Eventually, China will participate more frequently in international order as it seeks to reassert and stamp its position as a global power.

As an implication for China’s strategies, many countries in Asia are reconsidering their containment approach. The relationship between China, South Korea, Mongolia, and Russia is improving dramatically, hence forcing other countries such as Japan and India to reconsider their plan to lock China out of the regional order. America and the West are taking note too, as the possibility of China replacing it as a superpower is becoming more clearer. For the first time in History, America consults China as one of the 5 permanent members of the UN. In fact, the US banks on China to maintain regional stability and to tame South Korea in its Ambitious nuclear program. The fallout between the West and Russia forces America to cede some of its powers to China to maintain the  international order. While there are maritime conflicts in the South China sea, China is repositioning its military installations in the international waters as a symbolic demonstration of its growth. The communist state expected reactions to its moves, but the silence of some regional powers (such as India) on the issue demonstrates the scope of China’s dominance in the region and across the globe.

In summary, China no longer considers itself as a country on the verge of internal collapse or a state in danger of Japanese or US invasion. Communism in China has allowed economic development and modernization. However, as China plans to solidify its leadership of the regional and international order, it should shoulder the international burden and brace for the consequences (Breslin 2012). Still, demonstration of a responsible leadership guarantees China of peaceful rise and collaboration with global superpowers in pursuit of global matters.

Bibliography

Breslin, Shaun. "Understanding China's Regional Rise: Interpretations, Identities, and Implications." International Affairs 85, no. 4 (2012): 817-835.

Buzan, Barry. "China in International Society: Is ‘Peaceful Rise’Possible?."The Chinese Journal of International Politics 3, no. 1 (2011): 5-36.

Fan, C. Cindy. "Uneven Development and Beyond: Regional Development Theory in Post‐Mao China." International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 21, no. 4 (2011): 620-639.

Foot, Rosemary. "Chinese Strategies in a US‐Hegemonic Global Order: Accommodating And Hedging." International affairs 82, no. 1 (2014): 77-94.

Odgaard, Liselotte. "The balance of power in Asia-Pacific security: US-China policies on regional order." The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 19, no. 1 (2013): 29-46.

Schweller, Randall L., and Xiaoyu Pu. "After unipolarity: China's Visions of International Order in an Era of US Decline." International Security 36, no. 1 (2011): 41-72.

Shambaugh, David. "China Engages Asia: Reshaping The Regional Order." (2015). New York: MIT Press.